Politics

Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads

Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads

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  • Create Date：2021-04-23 11:54:53
  • Update Date：2025-09-06
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  • Author：David Rundell
  • ISBN：1838605932
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Summary

'Clear-eyed and illuminating。'
Henry Kissinger， former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor

'A rich， superbly researched， balanced history of the modern Kingdom of Saudi Arabia。'
General David Petraeus， former Commander U。S。 Central Command and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency

'Destined to be the best single volume on the Kingdom。'
Ambassador Chas Freeman， former U。S。 Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Assistant Secretary of Defense

'Should be prescribed reading for a new generation of political leaders。'
Sir Richard Dearlove， former Chief of H。M。 Secret Intelligence Service （MI6） and Master of Pembroke College， Cambridge。

Something extraordinary is happening in Saudi Arabia。 A traditional， tribal society once known for its lack of tolerance is rapidly implementing significant economic and social reforms。 An army of foreign consultants is rewriting the social contract， King Salman has cracked down hard on corruption， and his dynamic though inexperienced son， the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman， is promoting a more tolerant Islam。 But is all this a new vision for Saudi Arabia or merely a mirage likely to dissolve into Iranian-style revolution？

David Rundell - one of America's foremost experts on Saudi Arabia - explains how the country has been stable for so long， why it is less so today， and what is most likely to happen in the future。 The book is based on the author's close contacts and intimate knowledge of the country where he spent 15 years living and working as a diplomat。 Vision or Mirage demystifies one of the most powerful， but least understood， states in the Middle East and is essential reading for anyone interested in the power dynamics and politics of the Arab World。

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Reviews

John R ，

SuperbIf your life doesn’t intersect with Saudi in any way - business/culture/general interest， then this book will probably not resonate。 Otherwise， I find it the best book written on modern KSA， not even close。 The analysis is profound and spot-on。 A truly remarkable book and cannot recommend it more highly。 Bravo！

Usman Bayero ，

An easy and rewarding read！Well written， throughly researched and convincing， the author makes a strung case showing how Saudi Arabia became what is has been and what it:is today。

Sameer Brohi ，

Dnf because I think this is another of the agenda to manipulate the system。 The book had one pint of view， glorifying the rivals of Saudi Kingdom and presenting the royals as luxury hunters。 I don’t really understand the purpose of the book。 There were less facts more than conflicting paras and lengthen talk。

Jaeho Noh ，

The most informative and objective opinion on Saudi ArabiaI read a few books on Saudi Arabia， but this book is the most informative and subjective one with love and realistic suggestion to Saudis and the people of the world。 I agree with the opinion of the author。 It’s worth reading。

Donna ，

Very interesting and enlightening。 I would recommend it to anyone interested in learning more about the Middle East。

Jonathan Fryer ，

David Rundell served as a diplomat for 15 years in Saudi Arabia， as well as having postings in other countries in the region。 His account of how Saudi Arabia got where it is with King Salman and Mohammed bin Salman firmly in charge is well-argued and documented， the analyses shrewd and thought-provoking。 He wisely does not speculate too much on the future。 Perhaps even MBS can't do that with any certainty。 David Rundell served as a diplomat for 15 years in Saudi Arabia， as well as having postings in other countries in the region。 His account of how Saudi Arabia got where it is with King Salman and Mohammed bin Salman firmly in charge is well-argued and documented， the analyses shrewd and thought-provoking。 He wisely does not speculate too much on the future。 Perhaps even MBS can't do that with any certainty。 。。。more

C。 Patrick G。 Erker ，

I read this one on Kindle through Libby and the SF Public Library。For anyone interested in the role Saudi Arabia plays in the geopolitical landscape today， or anyone planning to do business in the Middle East， or anyone who is just interested in places that are very different from the US but whose interests intertwine with ours， this is a fantastic book。Rundell knows KSA better than almost anyone else in the world。 His grasp of the history， the key players， the dynamics between the key players， I read this one on Kindle through Libby and the SF Public Library。For anyone interested in the role Saudi Arabia plays in the geopolitical landscape today， or anyone planning to do business in the Middle East， or anyone who is just interested in places that are very different from the US but whose interests intertwine with ours， this is a fantastic book。Rundell knows KSA better than almost anyone else in the world。 His grasp of the history， the key players， the dynamics between the key players， and all the levers driving facts on the ground， is unparalleled。 I was a little skeptical early on in the book， since it starts with an outline that could have come straight from a PowerPoint deck。 But once I was into the meat of the work， I was mesmerized。 Rundell does a reasonable job taking a fact-based， realpolitik lens while reasonably applying modern standards and norms to what is a very different place to the Western world on some key moral， ethical， and cultural dimensions。I've had the chance to work in Saudi on a couple different occasions。 It's a consequential place we should all care about and cheer for its success overall， while holding it to the standards of modern sensibilities。 。。。more

Bea ，

Excellent description of the history of Saudi Arabia and the current situation that it faces。 The last chapters offer the author’s ideas about how Saudi Arabia can continue successfully。 Many good photographs accompany this book。 If one wants to be current about Saudi Arabia‘s role in the world this is a good place to start。

Dhartridge ，

Highly informative，albeit dense reading at times， this book provided me with context for a country that is strategically important to the U。 S。 Good reading for those interested in the politics of the Middle East。

Evelyne Marwood ，

NathanThought provoking。 Must read to understand the Al Sauds and how Saudi Arabia aligns to Israel， Turkey， Iran and Iraq。

KatsCauldron ，

Excellent reference book I intend to acquire for myself to have on hand to look up points when necessary。 est book I have ever read on the family of Saud that went on to create the kingdom。 It give major insight in the Wahabi form of Islam how it came to be as well as Bedouin in general [which are not like the plains tribes in anything more than willing fight to protect themselves， the rest of their mindsets are much different in thoughts & actions though they are the true Indigenous peoples of Excellent reference book I intend to acquire for myself to have on hand to look up points when necessary。 est book I have ever read on the family of Saud that went on to create the kingdom。 It give major insight in the Wahabi form of Islam how it came to be as well as Bedouin in general [which are not like the plains tribes in anything more than willing fight to protect themselves， the rest of their mindsets are much different in thoughts & actions though they are the true Indigenous peoples of that area from all I have seen， been around or heard] He naturally comes at this from a political western view but he was honest in history over the level of exploitive intent by Euro & US forces in manipulating & using the peoples of that area。 This especially by the UK。 Really think this book is a must read before anyone even tries to open their mouth on the subject of country or family 。。。more

Sharath Reddy ，

Saudi Arabia a key country for our world。 This book unlocks it。 Rundell has a deep， personal understanding that he matches with the history of the country。 I do think if you read this book， you will better understand why MBS and Al-Saud do what they do。 This is a unique country with limited similarity to other nations， but also one that by accident of geography sits on an enormous percentage of the world's energy。 What happens in Saudi Arabia affects the entire world。 Reading this book will help Saudi Arabia a key country for our world。 This book unlocks it。 Rundell has a deep， personal understanding that he matches with the history of the country。 I do think if you read this book， you will better understand why MBS and Al-Saud do what they do。 This is a unique country with limited similarity to other nations， but also one that by accident of geography sits on an enormous percentage of the world's energy。 What happens in Saudi Arabia affects the entire world。 Reading this book will help you understand it much better。 。。。more

Frank Van ，

Excellent book ！At this point I have read a whole shelf of books about KSA。 “Vision and Mirage” is by far the best out of all of them。 David Rundell is a New York Yankee and after studying Arabic at Oxford， he served as an American diplomat in the Middle East for thirty years。 He had a front row seat at all of the major developments in the country and does a masterful job placing everything into context。 I was barely able to put the book down once I started reading it and I loved all of the fres Excellent book ！At this point I have read a whole shelf of books about KSA。 “Vision and Mirage” is by far the best out of all of them。 David Rundell is a New York Yankee and after studying Arabic at Oxford， he served as an American diplomat in the Middle East for thirty years。 He had a front row seat at all of the major developments in the country and does a masterful job placing everything into context。 I was barely able to put the book down once I started reading it and I loved all of the fresh perspectives that he unveils。 。。。more

Tim ，

Hands down the best book on Saudi politics that gives the reader both a firm understanding of the historical context of modern Saudi society and very lucidly lays out the major political challenges facing the country today。 The single best read for anyone who wants to get spun up on Saudi politics as quickly as possible。

Peter Leon ，

A fascinating history of the making of modern Saudi Arabia This is an outstanding， as much as dispassionate， history of modern Saudi Arabia by an author steeped in the region as much as the the country。 It is enthralling as much as it is well written。

Lyle West ，

This book presents an excellent view of Saudi Arabia that clarifies so many news stories。 The Mid East is impossible to understand without the back story。 This writer has it。 The more I understand about the Mid East the more fascinating it becomes。

John Knowles ，

When hearing the terms “women’s rights” or “corruption crackdown”， most people won’t think of Saudi Arabia。 However， change is the only constant and that truism currently holds in the world’s sole theocratic monarchy。 The main catalyst for this recent change is Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads’ bearded cover model， Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman （MBS）， under the guidance of his 84-year old father， King Salman。However， author David Rundell spends much of the book relating the fo When hearing the terms “women’s rights” or “corruption crackdown”， most people won’t think of Saudi Arabia。 However， change is the only constant and that truism currently holds in the world’s sole theocratic monarchy。 The main catalyst for this recent change is Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads’ bearded cover model， Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman （MBS）， under the guidance of his 84-year old father， King Salman。However， author David Rundell spends much of the book relating the formative years of Saudi Arabia， to establish the parameters for judging the kingdom today。 Vision or Mirage relates in captivating detail how Abdulaziz ibn Abdul Rahman （aka Ibn Saud） used a combination of piety， pragmatism， brute strength， mercy， charisma， diplomacy with the US and UK， and foresight to unite most of central Arabia’s nomadic tribes and coastal cities into a nation named after him。 One of the key alliances he made were with the Wahhabi （fundamentalist Sunni sect from central Saudi Arabia） ulama。 The ulama-adjacent Ikhwan militia gave Ibn Saud the muscle to win battles across central Arabia and thus unite the land。 Ironically， the Ikhwan’s puritanical absolutism led the Ikhwan to become bloodthirsty to the extent that Ibn Saud had to eventually destroy them to restore order， at the Battle of Sabillah in 1929。 The Sauds’ having to face a fundamentalist Frankenstein of their own making would become a recurring theme in history。Ibn Saud was far more agreeable than the Ikhwan and used his diplomatic skills to win new tribal allies and placate tribes that he had defeated， forming an eventually nation-scale tribal alliance。 David Rundell notes that， “This explicit avoidance of promoting one dominant tribe distinguishes modern Saudi Arabia from many postcolonial African and Middle Eastern states in which tribal or sectarian affiliations still dominate politics。” He was a believer in giving second chances and the sacred bond of oral agreements， to the extent of potentially endangering his power。 This included negotiations with the British Empire， who very early on saw the benefits of supporting Ibn Saud， so as to sabotage the waning Ottoman Empire and bring stability to a traditionally lawless region。 Luckily， his optimism gamble paid off and the united nation of Saudi Arabia was founded on Sep 23， 1932。 The pragmatism of Ibn Saud continued once he had become a head of state。 He deftly juggled the pious demands of the ulama with the need to import modern technological and governmental innovations。 As a man ruling a land with a long history of clan-based nepotism， he allowed his underling relatives to establish patronage networks， but also made sure not to let the corruption reach the dangerous level that it did in other oil fiefdoms， like Nigeria and Angola。 Likewise， Ibn Saud instilled a culture of cohesion and meritocracy in the royal family by establishing an agreeable hierarchy， which included a succession system that factored in competence， instead of just blanket primogeniture。 Lastly， he copied his British alliance ploy with the United States in a famous meeting with President Roosevelt on a US warship at Great Bitter Lake， as America was steamrolling towards global supremacy at the tail-end of WWII。 The Saudi-US alliance， which has subsequently become very controversial in the latter nation and which was considered heretical by the “anti-Western infidel” Saudi ulama at the time， has lasted nearly a century and played a key role in the meteoric rise of the Saudi dynasty。Vision or Mirage then documents the reigns of Ibn Saud’s successors: Saud， Faisal， Khalid， Fahd， Abdullah and Salman。 The latter sections of the book are dedicated to the rapid changes wrought by the currently reigning King Salman and how they will affect the short- to mid-term future of the country。 Most notably， he allowed his unaccomplished young son Mohammed （MBS）， to leapfrog over many more senior and experienced royals into the position of Crown Prince。 This is part of a wider process of wrangling the royals。 King Salman has rapidly scaled back privileges for the tens （possibly hundreds） of thousands of great-grandchildren and great-nephews of King Abdelaziz。 Their stipends have been greatly shrunk and they have had reduced their lucrative construction contracts， legal privileges and government positions。 In regards to the latter， King Salman replaced nearly every minister and military service chief from a prince to a technocrat。 The princes who’ve been allowed to keep their jobs have disproportionately been those most closely related to Salman。King Salman and MBS have been similarly disruptive in terms of social reform。 MBS has repeatedly lamented how the 1979 seizure of the Grand Mosque by armed fundamentalist-Muslim cult members resulted in a vast increase in conservatism in Saudi Arabia。 The current regime has substantially curtailed the authority of the religious police， allowed the opening of previously banned public entertainment venues like movie theaters， increased the opportunities for public participation by women （including by building the all-female Princess Noura University） and reduced restrictions on non-Wahhabi citizens。 Take for instance this factoid: “In 1960 girls could not go to elementary school， yet in 2020 they comprise 60% of university graduates。” However， Rundell isn’t blindly cheerleading for MBS; he also points out instances of where human rights in S。A。 have stagnated or even regressed， including， most starkly， mass executions of peaceful activists。Economic reforms are also put under the microscope。 The millennial MBS is dreaming big in many ways， including by sketching out plans for a futuristic smart-city called NEOM， and by privatizing parts of the economy （which has faced some quiet criticism from the technocrat class）。 Oil has obviously been the predominant fuel for the Saudi economy for most of its history。 This commodity has also given S。A。 a role in the global economy vastly disproportionate to its population。 Saudi Arabia has the unique ability to drastically increase oil production to sink oil prices， due to its massive reserves; though in the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo， it did the opposite。 Thus， he who controls Saudi’s Aramco national oil company has the potential to extort energy importers， punish oil-producing competitors who act out of line， and shape trends in energy consumption。 In general， the Saudis prefer to keep oil reasonably priced， for extended periods of high oil prices encourage consumers and industrialists to make more environmentally friendly choices that would hurt oil’s long-term viability。 Being so reliant on oil for revenue makes Saudi Arabia vulnerable to global swings in oil prices; as the book notes: “Between 2007 and 2011 oil prices doubled， halved， and doubled again in four years。” MBS has put forth an economic diversification plan in his Vision 2030 Initiative。 Rundell explores the potential， pitfalls and implications of the plan。 Worth noting is that the Saudi currency is pegged to the USD。 Unless that practice is ended， Saudi Arabia won’t be able to control its monetary policy。Many other fascinating tidbits about Saudi Arabia are shared in the book。 For instance， Saudi Arabia has no legislative branch， for the law of the land is God’s Law （the Sharia）。 Terrorism and counterterrorism are discussed。 The theological roots of anti-Shia sentiment and their results on Saudi-Shia relations are explored。 This schism has global geopolitical resonance， with the Saudi’s proxy war with Shia Iran in Yemen。Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads is a book that will prove incredibly illuminating to the average Westerner， who probably only thinks of sexism， theocracy and oil when he thinks about Saudi Arabia。 Rundell uses history， theology， politics， economics and sociology to explain the current complexities and challenges of the Arabian Peninsula’s most dominant nation。 We， the Western reader， learn to empathize with people with a vastly different way of life than our own。 The book also contains some helpful maps and photos capturing snapshots of Saudi cultural history。 My only criticism is that the book is too flippant in dismissing the extensive evidence connecting the Saudi government to the 9/11 attacks… Most notably multiple links pointing to Prince Turki al-Faisal， who was head of the country’s intelligence agency for 22 years， before retiring 10 days before 9/11。 Instead， the author merely points to the heavily redacted 9/11 Commission Report， which was excoriated by Democrats and Republicans alike for the extent and nature of the material that was censored， and moves on to another subject。 With that caveat stated， I would recommend this book to anyone who wants to learn about Middle Eastern history， or who wants a rubric for thinking about its economic and political future。 。。。more

Reference

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